21 Game Turnaround?

One division that is most intriguing to me is the National League East. I truly feel that four of the five teams have a shot at winning the division.
The Phillies are the favorites and should be. But Philadelphia will be pressured. I don't think they are as good as last season, they might have trouble offensively, especially with Ryan Howard out indefinitely with his Achilles problem.
Who wins the East if the Phillies phlop?
I love the Nationals even though they were 21 1/2 games behind the Phillies last year. A healthy Stephen Strasburg can be the ace they never seem to have. It's not if Bryce Harper plays in the bigs this year, it's when. Will he make the team out of spring training? Probably not. But he will be up sometime this season and while many players with the "can't miss" label have missed, Harper won't be one of them.
The Marlins are improved, especially if Hanley Ramirez has a good attitude about moving to third base with Jose Reyes as the new shortstop. Reyes has to stay healthy for the Marlins to contend this year in their new ballpark with new manager Ozzie Guillen.
The Braves are the Braves. Good pitching, decent offense and hungry after fading down the stretch last season.
The only team you can dismiss is the Mets. They aren't going anywhere.
I will make my official, annual predictions on April 1st. But if I were to make those predictions now I might lean towards the Nationals. I'm very intrigued by the ex-Expos.